A Concentration Problem: What Q1 2026 Tells Us About the Fragility of Global PGE Supply 

When one of our active investors flagged Norilsk Nickel’s Q1 2026 production report to me last week, it crystallized something I’ve been watching with increasing concern: the world’s platinum group element (PGE) supply chain is becoming more fragile by the quarter, and the implications are no longer theoretical. 

The Norilsk numbers are stark. Year-over-year, the Russian mining giant reported platinum output down 26%, palladium down 18%, copper down 10%, and nickel essentially flat. Their full-year 2026 guidance now points to declines of 10–11% in palladium, 5–8% in platinum, 3% in nickel, and 5% in copper. For context, Norilsk produces roughly 40% of the world’s primary palladium supply — about 2.4 million ounces of a global total near 6.2 million ounces. 

That alone would be a market-moving development. But Norilsk isn’t operating in isolation. In Zimbabwe, the world’s third-largest PGE producer after South Africa and Russia, the picture is similarly difficult. Zimplats, Zimbabwe’s largest PGE producer, reported 6E ounce production down 56% in Q1 2026 versus the prior year, driven by an extended smelter shutdown. And in late April, the Zimbabwean government announced an indefinite ban on unrefined critical mineral exports, layering regulatory uncertainty over the operational disruptions already in play. 

Three jurisdictions, South Africa, Russia, and Zimbabwe, collectively account for approximately 90% of the world’s primary PGE supply. When two of those three are simultaneously shedding ounces, the arithmetic is sobering. 

The near-term picture: a deepening deficit 

The platinum and palladium markets entered 2026 already stretched. The World Platinum Investment Council and Metals Focus have both documented multi-year structural deficits in platinum and palladium, with mine supply heading toward a 12-year low. Platinum prices climbed roughly 120% in 2025, and palladium followed with gains of nearly 80%; both moves driven in significant part by the supply side rather than headline demand. The Q1 2026 production data we’re now seeing from Norilsk and Zimplats suggests that the near-term supply/demand deficit isn’t narrowing - it’s deepening. I expect continued price pressure in the months ahead, and the recent forecasts of a softening palladium market through 2026 may need to be revisited. 

The bigger picture: concentration risk is real risk

Beyond the immediate price action, the more important story is structural. When more than 90% of the primary supply of a critical metal cluster comes from three countries, the global economy is exposed to a fundamental concentration risk. The world’s automotive industry depends on PGEs for catalytic converters. Medical device manufacturers rely on platinum for pacemakers, oncology treatments, and surgical implants. The chemical and electronics industries use these metals across an enormous range of catalysts and components. The hydrogen economy, fuel cells, electrolyzers, and the broader clean-energy transition, runs on platinum and the related PGE metals. 

In other words: this is not a niche commodity story. PGE supply security is industrial security. And yet, despite years of acknowledgement that critical mineral supply chains need diversification, the concentration of primary PGE supply hasn’t meaningfully changed. 

The case for new supply from Tier 1 jurisdictions 

If we accept that PGE supply concentration is a long-term vulnerability, and the data make that hard to dispute, then the question becomes: what does the world do about it? The answer is the same as for every other critical mineral: accelerate the development of new primary supply from stable, mining-friendly jurisdictions. 

This is precisely the conviction behind ValOre’s work in Brazil. Brazil is a Tier 1 mining jurisdiction with strong rule of law, an established regulatory framework, and a long track record of successful operations across multiple commodities. Our 100%-owned Pedra Branca PGE Project in Ceará State hosts an NI 43-101 inferred resource of 2,198,000 ounces (“oz”) palladium + platinum + gold (“2PGE+Au”) in 63,568,000 tonnes (“t”) grading 1.08 g/t 2PGE+Au across seven distinct deposit areas, with mineralization that outcrops at surface — supporting open-pit development scenarios. Earlier this year, our metallurgical testwork demonstrated PGE extractions above 70% from weathered material using bioleaching, a processing pathway with the potential for a meaningfully lower environmental footprint than conventional smelting routes. We are now advancing toward a Preliminary Economic Assessment, targeted for completion at the end of 2026. 

I’m not suggesting any single project solves the problem. The world will need many new sources of primary PGE supply, in many jurisdictions, brought online over the coming decade. But Q1 2026 is a useful reminder that the existing supply base is not as resilient as the headline numbers suggest, and that the time horizon for adding alternatives is shorter than it looks. 

We continue to watch the geopolitical and operational developments at Norilsk, Zimplats, and across the South African platinum belt closely. We also continue to believe that the long-term thesis for PGEs, and for the developers building the next generation of supply, remains compelling. 

— Nick

Nick Smart, CEO · ValOre Metals Corp.
[email protected]
linkedin.com/in/nick-smart/